ASPO le point sur le Royaume-Uni

Publié le par FOSSILIST

Mercredi 09 Août 2006

EN COURS DE TRADUCTION   ........

ASPO UK revisited

 https://aspo-ireland.org/Newsletter68.pdf


734. Country Assessment Series - United Kingdom revisited
 

 

 Le Royaume-Uni avait été évalué dans la lettre du 20 Août 2002 et mérite une mise au point .


 UNITED KINGDOM

 

 

 

 

 

The United Kingdom had a strong Neolithic culture, highlighted by the famous astronomical observatory of Stonehenge, long before falling to the Romans in 55 BC. The Roman occupation lasted only a few centuries, but left an indelible mark.

Le Royaume-Uni  ( GB  Grande-Bretagne à eu  une forte culture néolithique , fameux observatoire astronomique de Stonehenge , avant de tomber sous la colonisation romaine en 55 AC.

L'occupation romaine a duré peu de siècles , mais laissa une marque indélébile .

It was followed by the dark ages of Viking and Saxon invasions, culminating in the arrival of recycled Danish Vikings from Normandy in 1066, the last

military invasion, apart from William of Orange who landed with an army of mercenaries in 1688 to oust a Catholic monarch.

Elle fut suivie par l 'âge noir des invasions vikings  et saxonnes , culminant avec l' arrivée de Vikings Danois recyclés en Normandie , en 1066 , la dernière invasion militaire , hormis celle de Guillaume d'Orange , qui débarqua avec une armée de mercenaires en 1688 pour installer une monarchie catholique .

General stability brought political and economic progress, including the creation of Parliament, as one of the earlier democratic institutions.

La stabilité générale amena des progrès politiques et économiques , incluant la création du Parlement ,l 'une des plus précoces institutions démocratiques .

 The Kingdoms of Wales and Scotland were absorbed into what became the United Kingdom in 1801, and Ireland was forced to join.

Les royaumes de Galles et d'Ecosse furent absorbés dans ce qui devint en 1801 le Royaume-Uni, et l 'Irelande fut forçée de s'y joindre .

Seafarers stimulated trade and exploration throughout the world, paving the way for the British

Empire.

Les explorations maritimes lointaines stimulèrent commerce et exploration à travers le monde , pavant le chemin pour l'Empire Britannique   .

At its peak in the reign of Queen Victoria, Britain had become the premier world power. Great achievements were recorded in the fields of science, literature and culture.

Britain also led the Industrial Revolution at first with mills powered by water to make cloth for export to its colonial markets.

The wealth, created by trade, led to the rapid growth of capitalism, banking, usury,

investment and a financial economy. The pound sterling became the world trading currency delivering a massive hidden tribute to the home country. Self-sufficient peasants became wage-earners, consumers and taxpayers, many working in gruesome industrial slums.

Mechanisation based on iron and steel took many directions. Iron smelting made new demands for energy. Firewood gave way to coal,

which had been collected from beaches and outcropping seams before mining commenced. The development of steam-driven pumps made it possible to deepen the mines below the water tables, and the pumps evolved into steam-engines, leading to the development of railways for transport.

 The internal combustion engine, using petroleum refined from crude oil, evolved from the steam engine and changed the world almost beyond recognition.

Britain had defeated an epoch of French expansion under Napoleon before finding itself increasingly threatened in the late 19th Century by a newly united Germany that was overtaking it in industrial prowess

and was seeking its own colonial and financial hegemony. These pressures eventually led to two world wars during the 20th Century. Although victorious in military terms, Britain lost economically,

surrendering its financial control of world trade to the dollar. It half-heartedly joined a newly united European community, preferring to retain its ties with the United States.


    United Kingdom 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Massive immigration from the former Empire followed the Second World War, being permitted at first in a sense of colonial  responsibility, but later exploited as a source of cheap labour.

The indigenous population aged from falling fertility due to affluence, but the overall population expanded to 60 million with the immigrants and their descendants making up more than ten percent and rising.

Most of Ireland had seceded in 1922, with 26 counties becoming a republic in 1947, leaving a form of civil war to continue in the remaining six counties of northern Ireland, which had been settled by Scottish immigrants centuries earlier. Scotland and Wales are now recovering earlier autonomies with independent legislatures, while various immigrant cities and ghettos have developed, some becoming almost replicas of Karachi and Kingston, Jamaica. Britain has moved far from its grand imperial past, although echoes remain.

They perhaps encouraged the present Government to assist its former ally invade Iraq in 2002.

As a result British troops face casualties occupying Basra and fighting Afghans. These actions have alienated sections of its large Muslim community, some of whom retaliated with a bomb attack in London in 2005.

Britain has had a long oil history, both within its own territory, and through the early prominence of its oil companies in the Middle East, Mexico and Venezuela. BP was the flagship with major holdings in Iran, Iraq and Kuwait, while Shell, an Anglo-Dutch enterprise, had a strong position in the Western Hemisphere. BP had a 51% government shareholding, taken up by Winston Churchill prior to the First World War to secure oil supply for the Navy, but Mrs Thatcher’s Government disposed of it in the 1980s.

A large block of shares was taken up by Goldman Sachs, which evidently still has close links, sharing the Chairman and having the Chief Executive on its board. Formerly, pre-eminent in exploration, making it the World’s largest vendor of crude oil, the Company has in recent years had to secure its financial assets by merger and acquisition, as represented by the take-overs of Arco and Amoco.


 Non-conventional oil shale had been mined in Scotland in the 19th Century, leading to pioneering refinery processes, and minor oilfields had been found onshore in and before the Second World War.

But the great thrust came during the 1960s, with the development of the offshore extensions of a prolific belt of gas fields that had been discovered in Holland in 1957.

Exploration then moved northwards in the North Sea to be rewarded by the discovery of Jurassic rifts, containing prolific source rocks, deposited 150 million years ago, which yielded one giant field after another.

Britain entered a phase of socialist government after the Second World War, such that the early stages of its oil boom were dominated by State entities : the British Gas Council and the British National Oil Company.

That ended when Mrs Thatcher’s Government was able to use the new oil supplies coming ashore to break the coal workers’ control of energy supply.

The State entities, which could have managed long-term depletion to the national interest, were disbanded, and the major international oil companies, along with many small independents, were given every encouragement to deplete the resources as fast as possible.

The early giant fields were brought on stream with the help of impressive advances in offshore engineering, but discovery peaked in 1974.

 The corresponding peak of production came in 1999 at 2.7 Mb/d, having been slightly delayed by a major accident at Occidental Petroleum’s substandard Piper Field, causing a temporary fall in production.

Although the rich deposits of the North Sea dominated production, some other lesser finds were made elsewhere. Lower Jurassic source-rocks gave a solitary large field in Dorset in the otherwise barren

English Channel, and a Carboniferous gas field was found in the Irish Sea.

 Efforts to find another play on the Atlantic margin continue but are likely to be doomed, because the essential prolific Jurassic ourcerocks,

if present at all, are now too deeply buried to generate oil. The isolated large deposits West of the Shetlands are effectively freak occurrences depending on unique re-migration from earlier accumulations.

The scope for gas in this province is more promising, but it will not be cheap.

Britain’s brief oil age is in decline.

The major companies are withdrawing to be replaced by smaller companies, mopping up small satellites and step-outs, as well as scavenging tail end production from ageing platforms.

Current (2005) oil production of 1.8 Mb/d is set to

decline at the current depletion rate of 7.5% a year,

meaning that it will have halved in ten years.

Consumption stands at 1.75 Mb/d, such that the country becomes a net importer on a steeply rising trend.

Gas production is more difficult to forecast due its very different depletion profile. About 125 Tcf have been discovered, of which 84 Tcf have been consumed.

Production peaked in 2003 at 3.6 Tcf/y and is falling at about 10% a year, making the country a net importer on a steeply rising trend. Energy prices have already begun to soar.

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 It is difficult to imagine the condition of the country fifty years hence. Its own oil and gas will have been substantially exhausted and such imports as are available will be insecure and prohibitively expensive. Failure by the government to recognise natural depletion until too late will likely leave the country unprepared, although it does now turn to the re-development of nuclear power.

Recommissioning old abandoned coal mines will prove difficult and costly.

 


 

The growing contribution of  solar, wind and tide power will be useful but insufficient.

It is hard to see how the country can support anywhere near its present population in the new world that opens during the Second Half of the Oil Age.

 


 

 

 

It may however see a new positive regionalism as communities rediscover their identities and find sustainable lives within the environment Nature has ordained them to live.


   

  
  

 

  

 

 

  

 

  

 

  

 

 

  

 

 

        

 

     

 

  

 

 
publié par FOSSILIST
 
 
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