Mineral Ores Increased Demand

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Increased Global Demand for Energy and Mineral Resources
Vincent Matthews, ASPO-USA
Why talk about minerals in a publication devoted to Peak Oil? Because minerals also follow the “Hubbert Curve”. Indeed, the life history of anthracite coal production in the United States is a classic illustration of an exhausted resource.

 And, Hubbert himself used production curves for pig iron in 1959 to illustrate his analysis of oil resources.
Global Framework

The exploding growth in China’s and India's economies (current GDP growth of 11% and 9% respectively) is placing demands on the world’s natural resources in a way that is unprecedented. Much of the attention in the U.S. media is rightfully on energy. Indeed, Goldman Sachs reported recently that four countries in particular - Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the so-called BRIC countries -are grabbing the most market share in oil and gas from American companies. The BRIC's share of the industry's market value has grown from virtually nothing 15 years ago to more than one-third today, while American companies' stake has dwindled from more than half to less than a third.

Mineral resources are receiving much less media attention, but are also experiencing unprecedented demand— with prices in the 21st Century increasing markedly for virtually all base metals, precious metals, minor metals, and even cement. The average price increase for 25 important metals in the past four years was 538%. However, there are indications that high prices alone may not be the U.S.’ greatest concern. There is a larger specter that the U.S. may not be able to obtain needed natural resources, at any price, because China and/or India may have tied up the supply.

Dr. Vincent Matthews is the State Geologist of Colorado. He will be speaking at the ASPO-Houston conference in October.
(23 July 2007)




Prediction #1 (of 4) from Oil Geologist Jeffrey Brown:

Producers’ Own Consumption Rising,

 Exports about to Plummet
Energy Tech Stocks
When the National Petroleum Council, a group of mainstream oil industry executives and advisers, acknowledged last week that finding supplies to match rapidly rising global oil consumption “is going to be increasingly tough,” Jeffrey Brown might have felt vindicated that the crown princes of oil were finally starting to see things his way.

But Brown, an independent petroleum geologist in Texas whose fear-inducing forecasts about the future of oil have been dismissed over the years by all but a relative handful, was too busy working on what he describes as the net export crisis that is about to hit the world without warning.
(23 July 2007)
JB writes:
Scroll down to Newsmakers.

This website is run by Bill Paul, who worked for the Wall Street Journal for a long time. He thinks that the Net Oil Exports issue is in the process of breaking out into the MSM.




ODAC News - Monday 23 July
Douglas Low, The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre

US National Petroleum Council report
1/ High oil prices threaten to linger (Financial Times, Wed 18 Jul)
Click on the headline (link) for the full text.

Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage

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