ASPO

Publié le 16 septembre 2006 par FOSSILIST

Index of Country & Regional Assessments with Newsletter Reference (*revised)

Abu Dhabi 42 Canada 48 Indonesia *61 Netherlands 57 S. Arabia *66

Algeria 41 Chad 59 Iran 32 Nigeria 27 Trinidad 37

Angola 36 China 40 Iraq 24 Norway 25 Turkey 46

Argentina 33 Colombia *62 Italy 43 Oman 39 UK *68

Australia 28 Denmark 47 Kazakhstan 49 Peru 45 USA 23

Azerbaijan 44 Ecuador 29 Kuwait 38 Qatar 58 Venezuela *67

Bolivia 56 Egypt 30 Libya 34 Romania 55 Vietnam 53

Brasil 26 Gabon 50 Malaysia 51 Russia 31 AFRICA 68

Brunei 54 India 52 Mexico 35 Syria *60 EURASIA 69

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION PROFILES

2005 Base Case

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gboe

Regular Oil Heavy etc Deepwater Polar NGL Gas Non-Con Gas

THE GROWING GAP

Regular Conventional Oil

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Gb/a

Past Discovery

Future Discovery

Production

Past discovery based

on ExxonMobil (2002).

Revisions backdated.

Rounded with 3yr moving

average.

Oil Price

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Brent Crude $/b

The General Depletion Picture

ESTIMATED PRODUCTION TO 2100 End 2005

Amount Gb Annual Rate - Regular Oil Gb Peak

Regular Oil Mb/d 2005 2010 2015 2020 2050 Total Date

Past Future Total US-48 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.7 0.4 200 1971

Known Fields New W.Europe 5.0 3.4 2.3 1.6 0.2 75 2000

967 788 145 1900 Russia 9.2 8.5 6.9 5.7 1.5 220 1987

933 ME Gulf 20 19 19 19 11 680 1974

All Liquids Other 29 27 23 20 8 725 2004

1043 1457 2500 World 66 61 54 48 21 1900 2005

2005 Base Scenario Annual Rate – Other Categories

M.East producing at capacity Heavy etc. 2.3 3 4 4 4 150 2021

(anomalous reporting corrected) Deepwater 3.6 12 11 6 0 69 2011

Regular Oil excludes Heavy Oils Polar 0.9 1 1 2 0 52 2030

(inc. tarsands, oilshales); Polar oil; Gas Liquid 6.9 12 13 14 11 354 2035

Deepwater oil, & gasplant NGL Rounding 1 2 -2 -25

Revised 20/08/2006 ALL 80 90 85 75 35 2500 2010

739. War

The following article from Alexander’s Oil & Gas Connections sums up the position well.

War on hold?

As the year is plodding on, and the weather is going from extreme to extreme in many places in the

world, another war just has been put on hold, one of the many that are currently plaguing the human race.

The 6th War, as it is called in the Middle East has proven again how volatile the human situation

currently is. This war, again, knows no winners and only losers, in most cases the populations of the

countries involved, the people whose villages and houses have been bombed or rocketed, causing fear and

destruction on both sides of the border, giving rise to another generation of haters if not something

substantially is changed.

Much has been written about the war and its contexts. It was said the actual causes had little to do

with what was happening, that it was an outplay of a geopolitical power struggle. It has also been said that

it possibly had to do with water-rights, or with securing a pipeline-corridor for several oil and gaspipelines

from Central Asia to the Middle East. There will be many other reasons that can be found to

explain what has happened.

It is extremely difficult to get a balanced view about the underlying causes for this mutual destruction,

it being that news and propaganda are hardly anymore discernable from each other and so many newschannels

are in the hands of so few people.

From here, in the still very safe countryside of Germany, I wish all those who have suffered

innocently from this clash much healing and all strength to overcome the damage done.

Alexander W stmann

740. Regional Assessment- EURASIA

Continuing the series of regional assessments, we take a look at the Eurasia Region below. As herein

defined, it comprises China and the ex-Communist bloc of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. It is

not accordingly a clear-cut geographic region but is a useful grouping insofar as its oil and gas industries

developed under very different economic and political circumstances. That said, it is remarkable that the

discovery trends are so similar to those of the non-communist world, with the larger fields being found first.

EURASIA

The Eurasia Region, as here defined, covers an area of about 35 million km2, ranging from the Arctic

wastes of Siberia to the Himalayan Mountain Ranges in the south, being also cut by the Urals Mountains

of Russia. Extensive deserts and semi-deserts extend westwards from China. The land mass is drained

mainly by rivers flowing northwards into the Arctic, by the Yangste and Yellow Rivers of China which

drain eastwards into the Pacific, and the famous Volga River flowing south through Russia into the Black

Sea. To the east of it lie the Caspian and Aral inland seas, together with Lake Baikal, which are subject to

such high levels of evaporation in the hot, dry climate that they lack outlets. Extensive tracts, north of the

Caspian, are below sea-level. A number of sizeable barren islands lie in the largely ice-covered Arctic Sea

to the north.

The Region supports a population of about 1.75 billion people, living in thirty countries, some of

which are now joining the European Union. The current population density varies widely from 1.5/km2 in

Mongolia to 136/km2 in China, but averages about 50/ km2. It has an average life expectancy of about 70

years, and a fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman, which is below replacement level. In population

terms, the region is of course dominated by China with about three-quarters of the total, that being one–

fifth of the World‘s total.

The Region has had a turbulent political history. During the 18th and 19th Centuries, Russia had

imperial ambitions under the Czars to extend its dominion both eastwards and into the partly Muslim

south around the Caspian. The Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, led in part by Josef Stalin, an oil worker’s

leader from Azerbaijan, cemented a new empire under the Communist system, later adopted in China.

The Region suffered greatly in the two world wars, but emerged victorious. Western opposition to the

Communist system led to the so-called Cold War, which came to an end with the fall of the Soviets

around 1990. China, although still run on Communist lines, has evolved into a commercial and industrial

power house with a soaring, and probably unsustainable, demand for energy.

New tensions and conflicts seem to be developing as the European Union expands its hegemony

eastward not only to the countries of Eastern Europe that were occupied by the Soviets at the end of the

Second World War, but to members of the former Soviet Union itself . A subtext may be the hope that the

euro might develop into a new trading currency to rival the dollar, and deliver a massive hidden tribute.

The oil-rich countries bordering the Caspian become a new flash point, subject to internal factional

conflicts, while seeking to escape from Russian influence. For perhaps not unrelated reasons, some of

them have accepted US military bases, located to control oil supply. The United States armed a nationalist

movement in Afghanistan to oust the Soviet Army, but later invaded the country, possibly to secure an

EURASIA

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Production kb/d

Russia China Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Other

export route for Caspian oil and gas, bye-passing the Persian Gulf. The strategy was no doubt premised

on unfulfilled hopes that the Caspian would become a major new oil province, rivalling the Middle East.

New political strength comes to Russia, as Europe increasingly depends on it as a supplier of Natural

Gas, following the decline of North Sea production. It is likely to resist Western pressure to admit foreign

capital to exploit and deplete its reserves rapidly, seeing no good reason to subsidize its commercial

competitors with cheap energy, while its own domestic demand grows. The existing western companies

operating in the country are likely to find the going hard, while Mr Khordokovsky, the entrepreneurial

head of the former Yukos Oil Company that came to prominence on the fall of the Soviets, finds himself

in jail.

It is difficult to summarise the geology of this large diverse area. Much is formed of ancient nonprospective

Shield rocks which are cut by the Hercynian fold-belt of the Urals, and flanked by the

Tertiary Carpathian and Himalayan belts. In terms of petroleum geology, the Region is dominated by a

productive belt, west of the Urals, which runs from the Timan-Pechora Basin in the North to the Caspian

in the South. The principal source-rock is the Domanik Shale of mainly Devonian age, which has yielded

oil trapped in Palaeozoic and overlying Mesozoic reservoirs. The trend becomes gas-prone northwards to

the Yamal Peninsula and offshore, due to the deep burial of the sources-rocks. It is also worth mentioning

in particular the North Caspian region, onshore and offshore, where Silurian source rocks have charged

Carboniferous reefal carbonate fields with sulphur-rich crude in structures sealed by Permian salt.

Another important province develops to the east of the Urals, known as the West Siberian Basin,

where Upper Jurassic source rocks have charged overlying Cretaceous sandstones in rift structures. These

two areas have been intensely drilled, yielding a fairly dense patchwork of oilfields, including the giant

fields of Romashkino, found in 1948 with about 17 Gb, followed by Samotlor in 1961 with about 20 Gb.

A third important province lies on the Pacific Margin, providing a number of productive basins in

China and offshore Sakhalin, which rely on Tertiary source-rocks, some of which are of non-marine

origin, yielding waxy crudes.

Lastly comes a series of Tertiary oil provinces in the foothills of the Carpathian and Himalayan chains

from Romania to Turkmenistan, including the important fields of Baku and the southern Caspian.

Hopes have been expressed by Shell and the IEA that the vast relatively under-explored tracts within

the Arctic Circle, including the offshore, might yield substantial amounts of oil and gas, but there are

serious doubts that they will be fulfilled. First, rich source-rocks, whose deposition was limited to tropical

regions, have only locally been transported to high latitudes by Plate Tectonic movements. Secondly,

experience from the Barents Sea and

elsewhere, shows that the Earth’s crust in the

polar regions has been subjected to vertical

movements of as much as 2000m, due to the

weight of fluctuating ice-caps in the

geological past. Such movements have in

many cases destroyed the petroleum systems,

depressing the source rocks into the gaswindow

and adversely affecting seal integrity.

On balance, it appears to be a gas-prone

region, as amply demonstrated by experience

to-date, although oil occurrences may still be

found in local exception structural settings.

The past and forecast production of Regular Conventional oil in the Region comes primarily from

Russia, China, Khazakhstan and Azerbaijan, as illustrated in the above graph.

The birth of the oil industry in fact took place in Azerbaijan in the middle of the 19th Century, when

that was part of the Russian Empire: drilling having been underway some years before Colonel Drake

sank his famous well in Pennsylvania. But political events, including the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917,

impeded further development until after the Second World War, when systematic exploration under the

Soviets began to deliver successful results. The major producing basins were identified, along with the

giant fields within them, delivering an overall peak of discovery for the Region in 1964, by which time

some 140 Gb had been found. Production is, as everywhere else, dominated by that coming from the early

giant fields of which the two largest are in Russia, together hold some 37 Gb, followed by Daquing in

China, found in 1959 with about 13 Gb. It remains to be seen if Kashagan in the Caspian off Kazakhstan

will take the fourth place.

Production reached an initial peak of 15.5 Mb/d in 1987, but then collapsed due to interruptions

associated with the end of Soviet Government, falling to a low of 10.3 Mb/d in 1996, before recovering to

14.8 Mb/d in 2005. It is now likely to remain at about this level until around 2010 before long-term

decline sets in at about 3.5 % a year. The growth of production in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan will fail to

offset the decline in Russia and China. The recent construction of a new pipeline from the Caspian to the

Mediterranean coast of Turkey provides an important new export route, although passing through several

transit countries, which may be inclined interrupt supply from time to time.

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