Positive Feedbacks and the Overpopulation Problem
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THE ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL AND GAS
"ASPO"
NEWSLETTER No. 77 – MAY 2007
ASPO started as a network of scientists and others, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints. Now, independent national associates are in existence or formation in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Isle of Man, Israel, Italy, Luxembourg, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States.
Missions:
1. To evaluate the world’s endowment and definition of oil and gas;
2. To study depletion, taking due account of economics, demand, technology and politics;
3. To raise awareness of the serious consequences of oil and gas decline for Mankind.
Foreign language editions are available as follows:
Spanish: www.crisisenergetica.org
French: www.oleocene.org (press "Newsletter")
CONTENTS
815. Peak Oil, Peak Food and Peak People
816. ASPO-USA Reports on Peak Oil
817. ASPO-Australia Progress Report
818. Ownership of national energy resources
819. The link between oil and climate
820. Did she peak?
821. ASPO-6 International Conference in Ireland
The following article by Jay Hanson tells the same message POSITIVE FEEDBACKS AND THE OVERPOPULATION PROBLEM By Jay Hanson April 9, 2007 ABSTRACT The fact that global oil production is peaking now, in and of itself, is not a problem. The problem will arise in the behaviour of Americans who can not get enough resources to feed their families. In other words, our peak oil problem is really our overpopulation problem (too many people chasing too few resources). Moreover, since American government was specifically designed to mitigate social problems by increasing economic activity – and all economic activity reduces available energy – all measures that our government take to mitigate our overpopulation problem will make our overpopulation problem even worse. SAME GENES, DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTS Human behaviour is determined by genes and environment.[1]. Genetically, we are still the same as we were in the 16th century.[2] What HAS changed since the 16th century is our environment. Given our present environment, the overwhelming majority of Americans decide that fitness is best served by cooperation instead of confrontation. This is because cooperation (working at a job for a pay check) works better than violence in our present environment. When the day comes that most Americans can't feed their families by cooperation (as in post WW1 Germany), then they will decide to use violence and take resources from others by force. We know that this day is coming to the America for two fundamental reasons: Ever-falling per-capita available natural resources.[3] . . .Sooner-or-later Americans will not be able to afford the fuel to drive to work. Sooner-or-later America's electrical grid will fail and our life-support system will collapse along with it (e.g., Katrina).[4]· Our Founders, for excellent reasons, didn't trust government, so they founded a government that was controlled by the rich via lobbyists. It's based on a few core assumptions: The best way to increase economic growth is to simply ask people who are good at it for advice. That's why lobbyists are absolutely necessary to the function of our government. Without lobbyists, our corruptible-but-otherwise-unqualified elected officials and their appointed cronies would have absolutely no idea what to do. In other words, elected officials are forced (by design) to ask the factory owner what government can do to increase his profit, so he will build more factories, provide more jobs, and then individuals can make themselves better off. Elected officials are to keep giving the rich people (factory owners) a greater fraction of the economic pie so they will keep increasing the size of the pie. That's how our Founders designed it, and that's how public policy is made today! Since our country was specifically-designed to solve social problems via economic growth, the only remedy our government can offer for social problems is even MORE economic growth. Thus, everything our government does to mitigate the problem (stimulate economic growth) will make our overpopulation problem even worse because all economic activity reduces our dwindling natural resources. THE NEW/OLD ENVIRONMENT Thermodynamic laws inform us that sooner-or-later an environment which favors violence will re-emerge and Americans will become, once again, red in tooth and claw". As per-capita available energy continues to decline, more-and-more Americans will decide to feed their families via violence. In the new/old environment, it will just make good economic sense to murder your neighbor, take his resources, and then invent a great excuse (hire an economist) to evade social responsibility for your actions. References: [1] "Environment" in this paper is everything that is not a gene. [2] http://www.warsocialism.com/ahistoryofviolence.htm 5 [3] Not only does all economic activity reduce available energy, all manufacturing activity also reduces available minerals: We must emphasize that every Cadillac or every Zim – let alone any instrument of war – means fewer plough shares for some future generations, and implicitly, fewer future human beings, too –Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen http://www.dieoff.com/page148.htm [4] http://www.warsocialism.com/ .