NEWSLETTER No. 77 – MAY 2007
ASPO started as a network of scientists and others, having an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints. Now, independent national associates are in existence or formation in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Isle of Man, Israel, Italy, Luxembourg, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States.
.TOP TEN REASONS FOR PEAK OIL - 1. Geologic limits and non-geologic
- factors will impact the timing of peak oil.
- Non-geologic factors include timing of investments, system tightness, shortage of skilled manpower, extreme weather events, geopolitics and violence.
- 2. Oil is concentrated—the top 20 countries produce 85% of the world’s oil—and about half of the leading producers have reached peak oil production and are in decline:
- a. Geologic limits: USA, Indonesia, UK, Norway (China soon)
- b. Political/geologic: Mexico, Kuwait, Russia (1988; re-peaking in a few years)
- c. OPEC/political: Iran, Venezuela, Iraq (Iraq also includes a violence factor)
- 3. . Non-OPEC oil production peaks soon, between now and roughly 2010. Groups which generally support this view include ExxonMobil, Chevron, OPEC, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, ASPO-Ireland, plus government agencies (IEA and US-EIA);
- all shared this view in October 2005 in Washington D.C.
- 4. Most oil is located in the Middle East where risks abound:
- a. It’s a cauldron for geopolitical, religious, cultural and military conflict.
- b. Muslim countries control 2/3 of the world’s oil and bitterly oppose US policies.
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- c. Resources for expanding production appear stronger than the desire/ability to do so.
- 5. Production from the non-Gulf OPEC
- is vulnerable and variable, especially in Nigeria, Venezuela and post-peak Indonesia.
- This group won’t be able to offset world oil production declines from non-OPEC nations.
- 6. . Depletion is relentless.(implacable, impitoyable )
- If the rate is 5%/yr, we need 20 million b/d by 2015 just to keep world oil production flat.
- Sadly, it’s no one’s job to "follow the depletion" Three of the world’s four largest oil fields (in Kuwait, Mexico and China) are in decline; the fourth — Saudi Aramco’s Ghawar, the world’s largest oil field — also appears past peak.
- 7. . National oil companies hold all the cards —75% of the oil—and their interests are diverging from those of consuming nations. Delays of new large projects are now the norm. ExxonMobil is only the world’s 12th largest oil company.
- 8. . Discovery rates are falling: world oil discovery rates peaked during the 1960s.
- We now find only one barrel for every three we produce.
- Today’s new generation of the best oil fields—in Brazil, West Africa, Kazakhstan, and the deepwater Gulf of Mexico—are more complex and cost more than the previous "cavalry:"
- Prudhoe Bay, Cantrell and North Sea.
- 9. . Domestic consumption by oil exporters is a key factor in Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Mexico.
- "Peak exports" will impact our economy before peak production lands.
- 10. . Unconventional petroleum resources won’t substantially impact the peak.
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- They are more expensive, slower to come to market, flows build slower, net energy is poor; there are environmental footprint issues (esp. carbon), and infrastructure issues.
World oil production is highly likely to peak and plateau between now and 2015
ASPO-USA http://www.aspo-usa.com
PO Box 371438, Denver, CO 80237 ph: 303-759-1998 sbandrews@aspo-usa.com
